PS5 launch is where I expected it to land, software is worse but I hinted at this during the prediction league - scalpers, digital and no real heavy hitting game for the Japanese audience is difficult to overcome. PS5 software will be sluggish until Demon Slayer and Final Fantasy release on the platform, there aren't any other exclusives revealed so far that would really move the needle on the PS5. I'd be surprised if the PS4/PS5 ecosystem surpasses 1 million this year. Expecting it to end up in the 800K range, so the PS5 can be somewhere in the region of 200-300K by the end of the year. But seemingly no PS5 game will surpass 100K this year physically.
So we'd be looking at under 15% software and 15% hardware market share for the PS4/PS5 this year, with Final Fantasy VII, Ghost of Tsushima, Resident Evil 3, Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon & The Last of Us Part II as their top selling games. Situation for the PlayStation is even more complex next year, as Nintendo is starting to receive both huge third party titles, AA exclusives and multiplats. If Final Fantasy is pushed into 2022, they'd be lacking any game that historically is probable to surpass 500K, relying on Demon Slayer being both a hit and pushing hardware.
